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Market Commentary By SMC
September 3, 2010
 
"The crisis is likely to affect countries that were foolish enough to open up their financial services industry to foreign banks. That way India is relatively insulated from the recession"
- Joseph E. Stiglitz
 
 
IndiaNotes Blog
  Stocks_Newsletter

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Stocks Strategy - 01st September, 2010
Top News
  • National Aluminium Co., India’s second-largest producer of the metal, is seeking to acquire a coal mine in Indonesia to secure fuel supplies for its planned power plant in East Kalimantan province.
  • Oriental Bank of Commerce plans to raise as much as 8 billion rupees selling bonds, according to a statement on the National Stock Exchange today.
  • Billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries Ltd. acquired a stake in India’s luxury Oberoi hotel chain, his seventh investment this year as he diversifies from the oil and gas industry that made him Asia’s richest man.
  • India's economy grew at its fastest clip in nearly three years in the quarter through June on strong manufacturing growth and farm output that may keep the Reserve Bank on its policy tightening path.
  • DTC bill has maintained the benefit of zero tax on long-term capital gains on sale of shares held for a period exceeding one year. Short-term capital will now be charged at 50% of the base rate, i.e., 5%, 10% or 15%, depending on the applicable slab rate for individuals and 15% for corporates.
  • The 8.8 percent expansion compares with a median forecast of an annual rise of 8.7 percent.
  • World stocks fell on Tuesday in markets dominated by concerns the U.S. economy is sliding back into recession, prompting further flows into safe-haven assets.
  • The yen headed for a fourth monthly gain versus the dollar, the longest winning streak in more than 1 1/2 years, as concern the global economic recovery is faltering boosted demand for Japan’s currency as a refuge.
  • Oil fell, headed for its first monthly decline since May, before a report forecast to show U.S. crude inventories increased to the most in a month.
  • Gold fell for a second day in London as prices near a record high in India, the world’s largest buyer, may curb new purchases.
Market Review
Indian Market:
Nifty closed with modest losses, after showing smart recovery in last half an hour of trade - led by FMCG, auto, select telecom and technology companies' shares.

The rupee slipped to its lowest level in more than a month on Tuesday, weighed by losses in local shares and other Asian peers. Growth data due around 11 am is expected to set the trend.

Under the Direct Taxes Code Bill, 2010 tabled in the Lok Sabha by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee and referred to the Select Committee of Parliament for scrutiny, the government has sought to raise the income tax exemption limit from Rs 1.6 lakh to Rs 2 lakh while retaining a host of incentives for individuals.

Global Cues:
Asian stock markets were lower Tuesday, 31 August 2010, after Wall Street's drop on Monday, 30 August 2010, with the Japanese market falling sharply as investors continued to fret about the yen's strength. Soft US data on Monday.

U.S. stock futures fell, indicating benchmark indexes will extend their selloff in August, as investors awaited reports on housing and consumer confidence that may cast further doubt on the economic recovery.

Euro zone inflation slowed as expected in August but unemployment was flat for the fifth month running in July as rising employment in powerhouse Germany was offset by fewer jobs in Belgium, Spain and Ireland.

Technical View:
NIFTY FUTURE TODAY GET THE STRONG SUPPORT CLOSE TO THE CRUCIAL SUPPORT ZONE OF 5350 TO 5355. DECISIVE CLOSING BELOW THIS SUPPORT ZONE MAY SLIP THE NIFTY FUTURE TILL THE LOWER LEVELS OF 5295 TO 5300 IN NEAR RUN. IN THE UPSIDE THE NEXT RESISTANCE SEEMS TO BE AT THE LEVELS OF 5490 TO 5500. THE MAJOR RESISTANCE IN THE UPSIDE SEEMS CLOSE TO THE LEVEL OF 5550. DECISIVE CLOSING ABOVE THIS RESISTANCE MAY TAKE UP IT TILL THE LEVEL OF 5700 IN NEAR RUN. FOR INTRA DAY TRADING WE RECOMMEND BUY ON DIPS IN NIFTY FUTURE UNTIL IT CLOSE BELOW 5350 FOR THE TARGETS OF 5450,5500. BANK NIFTY TECHNICALLY LOOKING WEEK AND WE MIGHT EXPECT SOME MORE CORRECTION IN IT FROM THE CURRENT LEVELS, THE CRUCIAL SHORT TERM SUPPORT FOR BANK NIFTY FUTURE SEEMS TO BE AT THE LEVEL OF 10500. DECISIVE CLOSING BELOW THIS SUPPORT MAY SLIP IT TILL THE LOWER LEVEL OF 10350 IN NEAR RUN. IN THE UPSIDE THE IMMIDIATE RESISTANCE SEEMS TO BE AT THE LEVELS OF 10940 TO 10950. DECISIVE CLOSING ABOVE THIS RESISTANCE ZONE MAY LEAD THE BANK NIFTY FUTURE TOWARDS THE LEVEL OF 11200 IN NEAR RUN.

Nifty Future August Bank Nifty Future August

Resisatnce Zone: IT HAS FIRST RESISTANCE CLOSE TO THE LEVEL OF 5423 & AFTER IT MAY FACE THE NEXT RESISTANCE CLOSE TO THE LEVEL OF 5447.
Support Zone: IT HAS FIRST SUPPORT CLOSE TO THE LEVEL OF 5365 & AFTER IT MAY GET THE NEXT SUPPORT CLOSE TO THE LEVEL OF 5331.

Resistance Zone: IT HAS FIRST RESISTANCE CLOSE TO THE LEVEL OF 10786 & AFTER IT MAY FACE THE NEXT RESISTANCE CLOSE TO THE LEVEL OF 10838.
Support Zone: IT HAS FIRST SUPPORT CLOSE TO THE LEVEL OF 10662 & AFTER IT MAY GET THE NEXT SUPPORT CLOSE TO THE LEVEL OF 10590.
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